The Department for Transport is making provision for a possible additional runway in its aviation strategy which will publish for consultation in December, deputy director of aviation policy Sarah Bishop told a conference last week.

“We are expecting that demand will continue to rise into the future, particularly concentrated in the South East, and (by 2050) we expect that there will be capacity constraints once more even with a third runway at Heathrow,” she said.

Latest forecasts, she explained, show that capacity will be well served in the region by Heathrow’s new runway up to 2030. “But there may be a need for a runway beyond that looking out to 2050.”

“We want to be on the front foot and set out the decision making framework for considering that question.” Options for this framework will be explored in the upcoming consultation on the aviation strategy, including a possible repeat of the independent commission approach that led to the Heathrow decision.

The prospect of yet another new runway being built in the South East prompted alarm from some in the audience, including air quality campaigners. Seeking to clarify the Government’s position, Sarah Bishop said: “On the question of whether Government is looking at a new runway, no we are not right now.

“But we recognise that the demand forecasts we have mean that it’s something we will need to return to in future if those forecasts are to be believed.”

She added: “There may be a demand case, but we do not yet know if there would be a commercial or an environmental case (for a new runway). All we want to do is make sure there is a framework in place to take that decision when and if it needs to be taken.”

Other policies expected to be covered by the aviation strategy include airspace modernisation, approaches to reducing noise, improving air quality and cutting carbon emissions, and providing better, more sustainable surface access.

Also speaking at the conference – organised by the Westminster, Energy, Environment and Transport Forum – was Gatwick director Tim Norwood who discussed the airport’s new draft masterplan.

The document sets out three possible scenarios for Gatwick’s future growth up to 2032, including bringing the airport’s existing emergency runway into routine use as reported by TP Weekly News last week.

The other two scenarios are to grow the airport’s capacity using just the existing main runway, which could increase passenger numbers to 61M a year, or safeguarding land for a possible future second runway that would provide for 95M passengers annually.

The option to make use of the emergency runway could serve 70M passengers a year. This runway is shorter than the main runway and, Tim Norwood explained, would be used only for departures and just for smaller aircraft.

The project would require some construction work and would still have to go through the development consent order process, but “could be delivered relatively quickly and be operational by the mind 2020s”, he said.

Responses to the masterplan are now being welcomed as part of a 12 week consultation.

(Photograph: Heathrow Airports Limited)