A full version of this article is available here -  CIHT on Resilience December 2015

Early December 2015 may prove to have been the latest in a series of “perfect storms” for UK infrastructure and transport networks.

“Perfect” may be far from the term that residents of Cumbria and nearby counties might use to describe Storm Desmond . Thousands of homes have been flooded, bridges and power supplies brought down and key highways and rail lines closed for long periods. Many affected communities also suffered major floods in 2009 and 2005. Early estimates of Desmond’s wider economic consequences are already in the region of half a billion pounds  and - like the flood waters - may rise again.

The consequences of major network interruption are clear. They are monetarily measurable in millions or even billions and less quantitatively – but no less importantly – in human misery. And extreme weather isn’t our only challenge: accidents, terrorism, and mechanical or electronic failure can all bring large areas to a halt.

Forth Road Bridge users face a trying Christmas. The crossing’s sudden and complete closure due to a structural problem is estimated to cost the wider economy tens of millions  – assuming a New Year re-opening. Should the bridge remain closed until the new Queensferry Crossing is available, the economic damage is reckoned to be £1 billion or more .

Many of the public and politicians tend not to think much about the importance of our infrastructure until it fails. Then we fix it and they forget it again. Less attention is paid to whether it need have happened, or whether it need happen in future.

Are regular, major interruptions inevitable? Recent years have seen a number of high profile weather-related failures. Increasing frequency of extreme weather events seems a challenge that is here to stay for transport professions as the climate changes. 2015 looks set to be the warmest year on record , exceeding 2014’s peak  – and the thirteen preceding warmest years all occurred in the 21st century.

Normal service will never be able to endure all extreme events. But while the cold snap of 2010 saw almost 10,000 passengers stranded overnight in Heathrow Airport , the problem was exacerbated by lack of preparedness and runway capacity used at 99% under normal circumstances. At the same time, some highway authorities were running out of road salt. Three winters later, floods caused over 100 earthwork failures on the rail network  and storms washed away the railway at Dawlish.

The Quarmby Review  looked at lessons for icy conditions and some lessons should have been learned. Soon afterwards, the Brown Review  looked at what could be done better in rainstorm and flood conditions. Given the critical importance of transport networks in our daily lives, and the inevitability of major shocks, what should the industry be learning – or reminded of – by recent events? While the immediate focus is, rightly, on saving life and property, followed by making good the latest damage, there are some wider points to reflect on over the festive period.

•    Good design, construction and maintenance maximises resilience

The 2014 Brown Review found that England’s strategic road network (SRN) was “constructed to higher design standards, and has enjoyed more consistent maintenance over its life to date. It is therefore physically much more resilient”.

Note the reference to both construction and maintenance, suggesting an emphasis on ‘whole life costing’. The increasing emphasis on capital versus revenue in local government funding may help us build resilience into new infrastructure – but the vast majority of our networks already exist and need to be maintained.

Local highways colleagues may well note the relatively greater funding available to the SRN, which leads us to a second point…

•    Resilience is an economic, social and political choice

Continuing pressures in local government revenue have made it harder to meet the public’s expectations of network quality and availability. With local highways, there is a growing realisation that efficiency and “doing things better” is unlikely to bridge the gap between what we’d like and what we can afford. Perhaps it’s time to accept that things need to be done differently – or that we simply must deliver less with shrunken budgets?

In privately-financed transport – such as aviation – difficult decisions about capacity are required. Heathrow operates at capacity in good conditions – it’s simply not feasible under extreme circumstances. Yet people and goods still have to be moved – and in increasing volumes. The same arguments may apply to high-speed rail, which will increase capacity and relieve pressure on existing, busy, jack-of-all-trades North-South main lines.

These – as the latest South East aviation delay shows  - are hard debates for politicians but debates which have to be had- and hard decisions made. It doesn’t detract from point 3, however, which is that….

•    Major shocks will still occur - we can and should prepare for the foreseeable - but there are limits to our foresight, and to the extent of preparedness for even some predictable events.

The importance of contingency planning cannot be understated. Local authorities have long experience in emergency planning but increasing and emerging threats to infrastructure and networks require regular review of plans and practice and a view across modes

The Brown Review recommended that local authorities identify a “resilient network” to which they will give priority, in order to maintain economic activity and access to key services during extreme weather

Perhaps the key to grappling more effectively with these complex challenges is in more mature, far-sighted and transparent analysis of our network needs and expectations. An understanding which transcends short-term savings and political cycles and plans effectively for our national future. Will the National Infrastructure Commission achieve this in 2016? Will it meet CIHT’s long-standing call for a national transport strategy ?

Thinking further ahead, the long-term future holds all sorts of unknowns. While there will be sudden, disruptive change, much of the major over the next few decades will be gradual and relatively stealthy but no less significant. The CIHT FUTURES is helping the profession consider how it might be resilient to generational changes, in part through the use of scenario planning – but that’s an article for 2016

Have a happy Christmas and a resilient future

CIHT Policy & Technical Team

Supplementary Information
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-35050251  maintenance cut?
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/scotland/forth-road-bridge-closed-cost-to-business-will-be-huge-1.914229
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35041271
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/07/britain-flood-defences-storm-desmond-fit-for-purpose
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2015/dec/09/storm-desmond-recovery-threatened-by-more-rain-live-updates
http://www.cityam.com/230377/audit-giant-pwc-says-storm-desmond-has-highlighted-how-the-uk-needs-to-invest-in-flood-defences-and-insurance-mechanisms-such-as-flood-re
http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/project/high-speed-rail
http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/news/cabinet-secretary-keith-brown-announces-step-forward-high-speed-rail-scotland
http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/news/infrastructure-secretary-ambition-and-opportunity-scottish-industry-hs2-build
http://www.citymetric.com/transport/adaptability-key-coping-transport-disasters-heres-why-1660