Ridership on the capital’s public transport network may reach 60% of pre pandemic levels within a year and 80% in the medium term, London’s Transport Commissioner Andy Byford has predicted.
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But he added that a return to previous behaviours is unlikely. “I don't think we will go back to the days of people being absolutely rammed in on the Central and Northern lines”, he said, as travelling in packed carriages may not be “societally acceptable in a world of viruses”.
Andy also said that additional services may need to be provided in outer areas of London such as Sutton, Wembley, Stratford and out towards Paddington and further west “as people congregate more and work in their immediate vicinity”.
The Commissioner made his remarks at a webinar yesterday marking the launch of a ‘Rethinking Sustainable Cities’ report, produced by Jacobs, the London Transport Museum, Gowling WLG, Thales and PTV Group.
Andy Byford was asked if, with many people now working from home, he expected patronage on buses and trains to ever return to pre-Covid levels, or if there will need to be a major rethink in how people move around cities.
“Trust me, this has been the big question for us in Transport for London over the last few months,” he replied, explaining that it has modelled five possible outcomes. They range from “an absolutely apocalyptic scenario” where no-one returns to mass travelling, London’s centre hollows out, offices don’t get repopulated and people continue en masse working from home.
At the other extreme is a “very optimistic scenario where it is as if Covid never happened” and people return in great numbers within six months or a year.
“I don't think either of those are realistic,” he said. “I think three intermediate scenarios are more realistic: crystallised around a hybrid (model) that says we can probably get to around 60% of ridership within a year and in the medium term probably 80% of normal ridership as offices adjust and businesses adjust to the new ways of working as the cultural centre begins to pick up again.”
But while that may sound like a good outcome, he added that a 20% drop in ridership represents around £1Bn of lost revenue to Transport for London a year.
(Photograph: Chaz Bharj - Shutterstock)
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