The Sixth Carbon Budget's recommendations for surface transport

10th Dec 2020

Yesterday, 9 December, The Climate Change Committee (CCC) presented The Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037) and the first-ever roadmap for a fully decarbonised nation. The CCC shows that polluting emissions must fall by almost 80% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels but what does this mean for the transport sector?

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Decarbonisation of surface transport has been slow over the past decade and surface transport remains the largest GHG-emitting sector. Policies have been implemented in some areas (e.g. new car and van CO2 regulations and support for electric vehicles), but policies are off-track to contribute to the Net Zero target and need strengthening. Earlier this year, the Government published a paper entitled ‘Decarbonising Transport: Setting the Challenge’, which set out the key decarbonisation challenges, and is currently developing a ‘Transport Decarbonisation Plan’ which aims to set out a comprehensive policy framework for surface transport.

The CCC sets out a series of recommendations for the transport sector to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget.

 

CIHT's response to the CCC call for evidence for The Sixth Carbon Budget

In response to the call for evidence from the Climate Change Committee  for the sixth carbon budget CIHT called for:

  • Investment in the local road network. The condition and safety of the network has been challenged by the lack of funding over recent years. CIHT calls for longer-term funding certainty for the local road network. This would allow maintenance to facilitate active travel, supporting decarbonisation agenda whilst improving peoples’ health.
  • Investment in public transport, particularly bus services.

The CCC recommends delivering plans to ensure investment in networks and to Strengthen schemes to support walking, cycling, and public transport which are both key calls in the CIHT response. 

Read CIHT's full response here.

 

CCC policy recommendations in surface transport 

Read the full policy recommendations here.

Active travel and public transport

• Strengthen schemes to support walking, cycling, and public transport to reduce demand for higher - carbon travel. This should include maintaining positive behavior shifts and addressing risks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, provision of cycling infrastructure and investment in public transport.

• The public sector should lead the shift to other positive behaviours that reduce travel demand, for example encouraging home-working, facilitated through prioritising broadband investments over road network expansion.

Cars and vans

• Strong consumer incentives to purchase zero-emission vehicles in the form of purchase subsidies, preferential company car tax, fuel duty exemption and lower vehicle excise duty should continue. These can be scaled back as costs of EVs fall.

• Introducing a zero-emission vehicle mandate requiring car manufacturers to sell a rising proportion of zero-emission vehicles (excluding hybrids), reaching nearly 100% by 2030, with only a very small proportion of hybrids allowed alongside until 2035.

• Continue to support EV charging infrastructure to ensure it can support high uptake levels. Project Rapid has the right ambition for the strategic road network and should be developed into a full strategy for the 2020s and beyond. Further investment is needed to support on-street and other urban charging solutions for those without off-street parking and destination charging.

• Implement the recommendations of the EV Energy Taskforce to ensure that delivering additional power capacity and electricity demand required for EVs is efficient, cost-effective and fair for the consumer. Ensure that as many EV users as possible can access smart charging so that EVs can provide a flexible demand resource to the wider power system and consumers can realise cost savings.

• Deliver plans to ensure investment in networks can accommodate future demand levels in coordination with Ofgem.

• Set out ambitious UK regulations on new car and van CO2 emissions to 2030, consistent with our Sixth Carbon Budget trajectory, with more regular intervals than the EU’s five years, backed by rigorous real-world testing.

• Government should deliver on its commitment to 100% of the central Government car fleet being zero-emission by 2030 and extend this to include all Government vehicles.

• Produce a clear assessment of how best to re-use and recycle EV batteries and fund development of competitive, large-scale battery recycling facilities in the UK.

Heavy-goods vehicles and the delivery sector

Implement large-scale trials of zero-emission HGVs in the early-2020s to demonstrate the commercial feasibility of these technologies and establish the most suitable and cost-effective technology mix.

• End new diesel HGV sales by 2040 at the latest to ensure the UK has a near zero-carbon freight industry by 2050. A comprehensive plan should be published in the early-2020s setting out how this will be delivered to give freight and vehicle operators time to plan for this transition. This should cover stronger purchase and other incentives, infrastructure plans and clean-air zones.

• Evaluate schemes to reduce HGV and van use, particularly in urban areas (e.g. e-cargo bikes and use of urban consolidation centres), to reduce traffic and improve the safety of active travel.

• Support freight operators to take advantage of opportunities to meet demand more efficiently, through logistics measures such as improved routing, better loading and reduced empty-running. Identify and address financial and non-financial barriers to improvements in this area.

Rail and buses

• Government should set out a clear vision to deliver Net Zero in rail and support Network Rail in delivering the target to remove all diesel trains by 2040. This is expected to cover a mix of zeroemission technologies (e.g. battery-electric, hydrogen and track electrification). The strategy should be published by 2021 as recommended by the National Infrastructure Commission.

• End new diesel bus and coach sales by 2040 at the latest, with most operators encouraged to switch over much sooner. Empower Local Authorities to continue driving zero-emission bus take-up and to improve bus services.

 

Challenges in decarbonising surface transport

Cars and vans

i) Electric vehicles

  • EVs are currently more expensive than equivalent petrol and diesel vehicles.
  • The supply of zero-emission vehicles will need to scale up rapidly across all consumer segments in the next few years to ensure it does not constrain demand.
  • Battery range. Range anxiety needs to be addressed to enable massmarket EV roll-out. The average real-world driving range of a new battery electric vehicle (BEV) today is around 180 miles, and this is expected to reach 220-250 miles by 2030.

ii) Charging infrastructure

  • EV infrastructure. A high take-up of BEVs will require significant charging infrastructure at homes, offices and on-street. The CCC estimate there will be 14 million BEV cars and vans on the road by 2030, requiring 280,000 public chargers by 2030.
  • Networks. The CCC's scenarios have significant impacts on the power system, increasing electricity demand from today’s very low levels to 104 TWh by 2050. Meeting this increased demand will require investment in system capacity and upgrades in the distribution network. The way consumers charge their EVs will be important in determining the cost of meeting this.

iii) Conventional vehicles

  • Fuel-efficiency. CCC analysis shows that there is scope for significant improvements in the fuel-efficiency of conventional cars and vans, with the real-world intensity of new vehicles expected to improve by 12% by 2030.

Heavy-goods vehicles

  • Zero-carbon HGV technologies are currently at an early stage and it is too soon to say which will emerge as market-leaders. Manufacturers are developing battery-electric and hydrogen trucks and trucks suitable for use on electric road systems, as well as demonstrating infrastructure

Road demand, active travel and public transport

  • Surface transport demand is forecast to increase by 10-20% from today’s level by 2050.4 Reducing demand and switching to lower-carbon modes of travel is cost-effective and delivers significant co-benefits, but requires a range of barriers to be addressed.
  • Public transport. Public transport must be well funded, frequent, reliable and safe to encourage more people to use it.

Read more information on The Sixth Carbon Budget here.

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