A meeting of TfL’s finance committee last week heard that – with an existing emergency funding agreement expiring on 11 December – funding gaps could soon require the transport authority to activate a scenario of ‘managed decline’ on the network.

In terms of capital investment, managed decline would mean only projects already under way and those critical to safety would continue, with work on all other planned schemes to be halted. It is said that assets such as tunnels and roads may also deteriorate and be forced to close.

“Once we have gone though all of our capital options the only thing, reluctantly, left to do is to start to really severely impact on the service levels we can afford to run,” TfL’s finance chief Simon Kilonback told the meeting. An 18% reduction to services on the bus network and a 9% reduction to Tube services would be required to balance TfL’s budget, he said.

“On the bus network in practice, this means over 100 routes being withdrawn and 200 of the remaining routes would have service frequency reductions. For the tube network, we’re still analysing the impacts – for example – of a full closure of a line or part of a line or smaller reductions across the whole network.”

Papers published for the meeting stated: “We have always been clear about the severe impacts to our service and the wider economy were ‘managed decline’ to take place, but in the absence of capital and revenue funding pledges from Government, we must now move to planning for this scenario. We would need to start enacting some changes immediately to start realising the financial savings in future years.”
 
The papers also warned that cutting public transport services would further reduce TfL’s income and shift more people into cars, in opposition to the aims of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy.

However a Department for Transport spokesman said: “The empty threats of managed decline are needless sabre-rattling. We have repeatedly shown our commitment to positive discussions, and look forward to working closely with the Mayor to secure a fair deal which balances the needs of London and the interests of UK taxpayers.”

Transport for London calls for £500M in operational support from the Government through to the end of the 2021/22 financial year, and around £1.2Bn for the following year.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan urged the Government to provide the funding TfL needs. “If the Government continues to starve TfL of funding, bus services would have to be reduced by almost a fifth, and Tube services would need to be cut by nearly 10%,” he said. “TfL is even having to look at potentially closing a whole Tube line to achieve the savings it may need to make.
 
“There would also be an increase in road and tunnel closures due to a lack of money to maintain London’s key transport infrastructure. This combination of deteriorating public transport services and an increase in road and tunnel closures would cause widespread disruption and gridlock across the capital.
 
“Not only would this have a devastating effect on passengers, but it would put the national economic recovery at risk.”

(Photograph: Transport for London)