Most construction work is now complete on the heavily delayed project, which is finally expected to open in 2022 four years later than its original schedule and at a total cost of £18.9Bn – almost 30% over budget.

Head of the NAO Gareth Davies said “there are now encouraging signs that Crossrail is in a more stable position”, following the organisation’s previous report in May 2019, which found the project was being managed in ways that drove ‘unnecessary’ cost.

However the latest report adds that the programme was further from completion and more complicated than Crossrail Ltd or the project sponsors understood which – in combination with the impacts of Covid – has resulted in a further forecasted cost increase of £1.9Bn and 10 to 20 months of additional delay since 2019.

“It will require further funding to complete, and there are still significant risks that must be managed as the Elizabeth line undergoes operational testing,” said Gareth Davies.

The NAO says the scheme’s current budget falls £120M short of the amount needed to finish Crossrail. This comes after the Department for Transport agreed £825M of additional funding in December 2020, against Crossrail Ltd’s estimate that it would need between £800M and £1.1Bn.

The project company is currently in the process of transferring assets such as stations to Rail for London Infrastructure (part of Transport for London) and London Underground – which will maintain and operate different parts of the Elizabeth line – while operational testing of the new railway under the capital began in March.

Alongside this process, the report urges more to be done to plan for and deliver the wider benefits of Crossrail. “As the Elizabeth line nears the start of services in 2022, Transport for London and Government must think through how to realise the benefits of the railway in order to maximise the return on almost £19Bn of investment,” urged Gareth Davies.

In light of changes to travel patterns including the rise in flexible and remote working seen during the pandemic, the report says ‘achieving the wider economic benefits of the original business case will require sustained vision over a long period’.

Public Accounts Committee chair Meg Hillier commented: “Crossrail is already three years late and nearly 30% over its original budget but there are encouraging signs that it will open in 2022. The settlement with Government still leaves a funding shortfall which will need to be resolved.

“Government needs to ensure that it has learned key lessons from Crossrail as it moves to modernise and reshape rail across the country,” she added.

Association for Project Management head of public affairs Andrew Baldwin said: “There are lessons to be learned here about why the project needed extra funding and a delay to the original completion date. Good project outcomes require the right conditions for success, and this project has been hampered by sector and time specific issues, such as the impact of Covid-19 and staff shortages as well as concerns about an ‘unachievable’ revised schedule and budget.”

Crossrail chief executive Mark Wild welcomed the NAO’s report and confirmed that the Elizabeth line is set to open in the first half of 2022. “Now more than ever Londoners are relying on the capacity and connectivity that the Elizabeth line will bring.

“We are doing everything we can to complete the line as quickly as possible, but there are no short cuts to delivering this hugely complex railway. The Elizabeth line must be completed to the highest safety and quality standards.”

(Photograph: Crossrail Ltd)

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