By Johnny Sharp

When climate resilience is considered within the transport sector, the natural tendency is to focus on reducing losses. It’s not hard to grasp the potential costs of inaction, whether it’s the estimated £1bn in passenger compensation Network Rail had to pay due to disruption between 2006 and 2021 or the estimated £280m-a-day economic cost of severe travel delays. 
And the impact goes far beyond transport: last year, the Climate Change Committee estimated that unchecked climate impacts could reduce UK economic output by 7% of GDP by 2050.

The advantages of climate resilience

However, enhancing climate resilience also has a range of economic advantages, as pointed out in The Macroeconomic Case for Investing in Climate Adaptation, the recent policy publication from LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. One of the co-authors of the April 2026 report, Professor Swenja Surminski, stresses the clear benefits of “proactive action rather than a wait-and-see strategy”, and she sees the transport sector as one where significant gains can be made.

“We can see how a lack of adaptation investment in our transport infrastructure is really starting to show,” she says. “But our research highlights the triple dividend of adaptation investment.”. 
As well as measures that reduce impact costs, the report points out how investment will stimulate activity in the economy. “Adaptation projects create jobs, drive local economic growth, catalyse private investment and unlock international concessionary finance,” explains Professor Surminski. These ‘co-benefits’ also include social equity gains, improved health outcomes and wellbeing across communities.

Triple dividend effect

The LSE report highlights the clear profits to be made from proactive adaptation measures, with “median economic benefit–cost ratios of around 4:1 and economic internal rates of return of around 25%”. 

Similar calculations have been made overseas. The European Environment Agency is one of many organisations to recognise the triple dividend effect and points to the PESETA IV report, which found that adapting to rising coastal flood risks in the EU is delivering a €6 return for every €1 invested.

In addition, the World Resources Institute’s report Strengthening the Investment Case for Climate Adaptation, analysed investments in 320 adaptation and resilience projects, and found that every $1 invested in adaptation could expect to return $10.50 in benefits in a 10-year period, calling it “one of the smartest investments of our time”. The benefits to the transport sector were particularly strong, ranking second only to health, with an economic internal rate of return measured at 167% over the course of a decade.

Immediate benefits for transport

Professor Surminski agrees that the transport sector stands to benefit more than most as “it’s so interconnected and crucial to other sectors.” She stresses the benefits of a holistic approach to the issue, which she compares to studies found in the tourism industry. 

“If you do the flood protection well then the beach regeneration follows, the place becomes more attractive and more people want to visit, which has strong economic benefits.” 
While there’s always resistance to setting aside large budgets for such projects, Professor Surminski believes prioritising resilience work is no longer up for debate. “I work a lot with companies in the transport sector who see their shipping network, their assets, their infrastructure being destroyed or disrupted, so they need to do something now.

“Not all adaptation requires significant capital investment,” she adds. “There’s a lot of low-hanging fruit in terms of systems resilience, efficiency and using data to anticipate and manage better. We have no choice but to upgrade and invest, so let’s do it in a climate-resilient, long-term way that we can see produces strong economic benefits.”

• Join CIHT and the CCC on June 11 for a webinar on the CCC’s latest report on climate risk and adaptation. To book your place, click here
• To read the LSE’s Macroeconomic Case for Investing in Climate Adaptation report, click here
  
  

Image title: Professor Swenja Surminski, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, part of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

‘Swenja Surminski landscape - 396A8435’ supplied