Last week, CIHT published Doubling Down on Climate Action, the final report of its year-long CLIMATES initiative, led by outgoing President Professor Glenn Lyons. Among its key recommendations is that governments across the UK should "openly and robustly demonstrate and justify" how their plans for decarbonising surface transport align with expert advice from the Climate Change Committee (CCC)—and that the wider transport profession should provide greater scrutiny and constructive challenge.

A new report, Headwinds – Transport Decarbonisation in a Storm, by CIHT Fellow Professor Greg Marsden, steps up to that challenge. It points to reducing travel demand as an underused but vital tool for building a more credible pathway to transport decarbonisation—especially at a time when political consensus on climate action is weakening, and with a third version of the UK’s Net Zero Strategy expected this autumn (the previous two having been ruled unlawful by the High Court).

Professor Marsden’s study finds that if the CCC’s Fifth Carbon Budget pathway (published in 2016) had been followed, surface transport emissions would now be almost 25% lower and declining five times faster than they are today. While recognising positive signs—such as stronger Net Zero commitments from the new Labour government, improved certainty for public transport investment, and healthy EV sales—the report highlights that current funding for active travel and bus services falls well short of what is needed to achieve the necessary shift from private car use.

It also warns that CCC expectations for the transition to zero emission vehicles exceed what current policy is likely to deliver, raising doubts about whether the £1.4bn allocated to support EV uptake will be sufficient.

Turning to solutions, the report argues that current policy—focused mainly on "shift" (to public transport and active travel) and "improve" (through cleaner vehicles)—overlooks the potential of "avoid": reducing the overall demand for travel. The CCC has largely treated the pandemic-related fall in car use as a one-off. However, per capita car mileage had already been declining for a decade before Covid, reflecting wider trends in how people shop, work, and socialise.

Professor Marsden argues that embracing these broader social shifts could cut the cost of the transition to Net Zero and deliver wider benefits—such as reduced congestion, improved air quality, enhanced road safety, and better public well-being. Crucially, in the face of mounting political, economic and social headwinds, this approach could also help close the “credibility gap” between current government spending plans and the scale and pace of delivery needed to meet CCC targets.

If you’d like more information on the CLIMATES initiative, please contact climates@ciht.org.uk