How AVs will succeed and become mainstream

20th Sept 2022

Reducing speed limits, publicising testing, exposing pricing and exploring accessibility and shared ownership will help determine the future in which autonomous vehicles (AVs) become a part of our mobility landscape, according to a recent member discussion on CIHT’s Connect forum. By Transportation Professional

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“What do you think is the one thing that is needed for AVs to succeed and become mainstream in your country?”

We asked, on CIHT Connect, and you answered:

1 Reduce urban speed limit to 20mph

“In urban environments, we have to reduce the speed limit to 20mph to reduce the outcome of impact incidents, where the unpredictability of other road users can ‘confuse’ how AVs react.”

2 Publicise results of AV stress testing with multi-modal users

“We need proven and well publicised trials that demonstrate how AVs can perform in a real environment, one where pedestrians, cyclists, and other vehicles, along with different weather conditions, are all present to create a series of worst-case scenarios to stress test the vehicles.”

3 Expose cost of vehicle usage compared to the cost of the vehicle

“Once the technology is fully developed, cost will be the big factor for mass uptake, much like with EVs or any other emerging technology. If mass-produced AVs become an affordable option, people will default to them if they’re the best cost option (probably regardless of its safety performance etc). This is less about the cost of the vehicle itself and more about the cost of vehicle use. It could be that we get convoy commuter lanes that are free for AVs.”

3 Present AVs as supplementary piece in the puzzle that will reduce congestion

“I can envisage a sheaf of routes in a region, possibly using magnetic levitation, overlying the concept of a ‘linear city’ where a high-speed backbone, linking mid-sized conurbations, so avoiding implosive congestion, would be supplemented by local AVs to connect to final destinations. The philosophy would be to achieve a rational and sustainable ‘nexus’ of geography, settlement, and ‘efficient and sufficient’ transport, rather than mobility as the driver or for its own sake.”

“Better connection between vehicles and infrastructure should reduce the likelihood of flow breakdown and congestion, giving the opportunity to reduce maximum speeds in sensitive populated areas and rural roads, without increasing journey times by the same factor.”

4 Consider whether AVs are a more accessible option

“AVs should hopefully make transport on average much safer and accessible – particularly for user groups such as elderly drivers or those with disabilities. One day in the future, we’ll look back and think it’s a bit mad we didn’t think of helping out these user groups with AVs sooner.”

5 Promote shared ownership of AVs

“AVs could potentially change the whole culture of personal mobility, if combined with a move from private ownership to on-demand. Obviously, private car use would become less instantly ‘convenient’, but this would tend to narrow the perverse gap between perceived and actual cost.

“The issue will always be about the confidence of vehicle users and those outside the vehicle, so we need some criteria that satisfy those concerns. We should try to move the debate away from ‘private and public’ transport to ‘personalised’ transport. There seems to be no reason why AVs should not be collectively owned and used as required for the whole or specific legs of a journey.

Do you agree or disagree with the points raised? Join in on this discussion and many more on CIHT Connect (members only).

Do you agree or disagree with the points raised? Join in on this discussion and many more on CIHT Connect (members only).

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